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在气候变化情景下绘制欧洲阿尔卑斯山森林火灾危险概率的地图
Kilian Gerberding1, Uta Schirpke2
1Faculty of Environment and Natural Resources, University of Freiburg, Tennenbacher Str. 4, Freiburg, 79106, Germany.
Journal of environmental management
|February 23, 2025
概括
全球气候变化正在增加欧洲阿尔卑斯山的森林火灾危险. 未来的情景预测,森林的数量将大幅增加,特别是在北部和东部地区,需要采取适应性森林管理战略.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 林业林业 林业 林业 林业
背景情况:
- 全球人为气候变化正在全球范围内增加森林火灾的频率和强度.
- 欧洲阿尔卑斯山面临着日益增加的森林火灾风险,但未来的危险评估是有限的.
研究的目的:
- 分析气候变化对欧洲阿尔卑斯山和周边地区森林火灾概率的影响.
- 在各种气候场景下绘制当前和未来的森林火灾危险图.
主要方法:
- 用地理加权回归来建模森林火灾危险.
- 分析包括了环境参数,如闪电频率,温度和降雨季节性.
- 未来的预测是使用共享社会经济路径 (SSP126,SSP370,SSP585) 进行的.
主要成果:
- 森林火灾危险主要受到雷击频率,年平均温度和降雨季节性的影响.
- 根据未来的气候场景,整个研究区域预计森林火灾危险将大幅增加.
- 具体情景预测显示增幅为+15.5% (SSP126),+30.6% (SSP370) 和+35.4% (SSP585).
- 虽然法国西南部的影响较小,但北欧和东欧阿尔卑斯山地区的火灾危险概率预计将大幅增加.
结论:
- 预计气候变化将大大提高欧洲阿尔卑斯山的森林火灾危险,特别是在北部和东部地区.
- 紧急实施消防智能森林管理和决策对于减轻这些风险至关重要.
- 解决数据局限性和场景不确定性对于改进未来评估至关重要.
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