在使用时间变化的Boruta-SHAP随机森林模型和气候植被生产率指数,估计了中国未实现的森林碳潜力
1Co-Innovation Center for Sustainable Forestry in Southern China, Nanjing Forestry University, Nanjing, China.
Journal of environmental management
|February 23, 2025
概括
中国的森林储存7.96 Pg C,具有显著的未实现潜力,特别是在阿尔卑斯山亚热带地区. 了解实现和未实现的森林碳储存是气候变化缓解战略的关键.
科学领域:
- 林业林业 林业 林业 林业
- 气候变化科学 气候变化科学
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
背景情况:
- 森林碳储存对于减缓气候变化至关重要.
- 了解实现和未实现的碳储存对于有效的森林管理至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 估计中国森林实现的潜在碳密度/储存 (RPCD/RPCS) 和未实现的潜在碳密度/储存 (UPCD/UPCS).
- 分析森林碳储存的空间分布及其潜力.
主要方法:
- 用一个时间变化的Boruta-SHAP-随机森林模型 (TBS-RF) 来估计RPCD/RPCS.
- 帕特森的气候植被生产率 (CVP) 指数被用来确定潜在的碳密度/储存 (PCD/PCS).
主要成果:
- 中国的森林平均RPCD为56.12 Mg C/ha,总RPCS为7.96 Pg C.
- 阿尔卑斯山亚热带地区的RPCD和UPCD最高,而中亚热带地区的RPCS最高.
- 森林的平均生产力潜力为10.00 m3 ha-1·a-1.1.
结论:
- 中国的森林在碳捕获中发挥着重要作用.
- 阿尔卑斯山亚热带地区拥有大量尚未开发的碳捕集能力.
- 需要有效的森林管理策略来增强碳汇并减少排放.
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