适当的概率函数用于参数估计在S型模型的不扰乱的瘤生长
Erick E Ramirez-Torres1,2, Antonio R Selva Castañeda1, Luis Rández1
1Instituto Universitario de Investigación de Matemáticas y Aplicaciones, Universidad de Zaragoza, Zaragoza, Spain.
Scientific reports
|February 24, 2025
概括
准确的瘤生长建模需要概率函数来计算随着瘤大小增加的测量误差. 像Thres模型这样的体积依赖误差分散的模型最好捕捉瘤变异性,以便进行精确的分析.
科学领域:
- 数学生物学 数学生物学
- 生物统计学 生物统计学
- 癌症研究 癌症研究
背景情况:
- 估计S型瘤生长模型的参数需要概率函数,以解决与瘤大小相关的测量误差.
- 固体瘤测量显示出随着瘤随时间的推移而变化的变化.
研究的目的:
- 提出和评估S型模型中未被扰乱的瘤生长的参数估计的概率函数.
- 用贝叶斯标准和残余分析来比较不同的概率函数.
主要方法:
- 用Gompertz方程评估了五个概率函数,以适应未受到干扰的瘤生长数据 (Ehrlich,纤维肉瘤Sa-37,F3II瘤).
- 贝叶斯信息标准 (BIC),偏差信息标准 (DIC) 和贝叶斯因子用于模型比较.
- 对残留物进行了假设测试,以评估模型的合适性.
主要成果:
- 使用瘤体积依赖分散的错误模型显著超过了标准常量变异模型.
- Thres模型表现出卓越的性能,为瘤生长动态提供可解释的参数.
- 常变模型,包括正常误差分布,作为基准仍然很有用.
结论:
- 结合体积依赖分散的模型对于准确和临床相关的瘤生长建模至关重要.
- 容量依赖的分散模型更好地反映了瘤测量变异性.
- 恒定分散模型是对比分析和历史一致性的宝贵补充.
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