185个国家的乳腺癌发病率和死亡率的全球模式和趋势
Joanne Kim1, Andrew Harper2, Valerie McCormack2
1Environment and Lifestyle Epidemiology Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France.
Nature medicine
|February 24, 2025
概括
全球乳腺癌病例和死亡人数正在上升,预计到2050年将增加38%和68%,特别是影响HDI较低的国家. 针对性干预对于乳腺癌控制至关重要.
科学领域:
- 在瘤学瘤学.
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 全球健康 全球健康
背景情况:
- 监测乳腺癌负担对于评估控制努力至关重要,例如世卫组织全球乳腺癌倡议.
- 该倡议的目标是每年将乳腺癌死亡率降低2.5%.
- 需要准确的估计来跟踪进展和识别差异.
研究的目的:
- 评估目前 (2022年) 和预计 (2050年) 全球女性乳腺癌负担.
- 分析乳腺癌发病率和死亡率的十年趋势.
- 评估全球乳腺癌控制目标的进展情况.
主要方法:
- 利用GLOBOCAN数据库对2022年和2050年的全球负担估计在185个国家.
- 分析了使用五大洲癌症发病率以及数据库 (50个国家) 的10年发病率趋势.
- 使用世界卫生组织死亡数据库 (46个国家) 检查了10年死亡趋势.
主要成果:
- 在2022年,全球有230万个新的女性乳腺癌病例和67万例死亡.
- 在研究的一半国家,发病率每年增加1-5%.
- 虽然人类发展指数 (HDI) 高的国家的死亡率下降了,但2050年的预测显示病例增加了38%,死亡人数增加了68%,不成比例地影响了低HDI的国家.
结论:
- 乳腺癌的负担在全球范围内不断增加,预计未来会有显著的增长,特别是在HDI较低的国家.
- 七个国家正在实现世界卫生组织的全球乳腺癌倡议减少死亡率的目标.
- 改善癌症数据,早期诊断和治疗机会对于低和中等HDI国家来解决不平等问题和实现控制目标至关重要.
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