用监测,流行病学和最终结果数据库和外部验证来确定囊性腺癌的整体存活率的诺莫图
Jia Yang1, Zi-Yi Wang1, Jing Chen1
1Department of Gastroenterology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Army Medical University, Chongqing 400038, China.
World journal of clinical oncology
|February 25, 2025
概括
这项研究开发了一种动态名图,用于预测患有罕见癌症囊腺癌的患者的存活率. 该工具在总体和癌症特异性存活率方面显示出强大的预测准确性.
科学领域:
- 胃肠道瘤学 胃肠道瘤学
- 癌症预后 癌症预后
- 生物统计学 生物统计学
背景情况:
- 腹膜腺癌是一种罕见的胃肠道恶性瘤,存活数据有限.
- 准确的生存预测对于患者管理和治疗规划至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 开发和验证一个动态的诺姆图来预测囊腺癌患者的整体生存率 (OS) 和癌症特异性生存率 (CSS).
- 确定影响生存结果的独立风险因素.
主要方法:
- 使用监测,流行病学和最终结果 (SEER) 数据库来获取患者数据.
- 随机选择患者进入培训 (70%) 和验证 (30%) 队列.
- 采用考克斯回归 (单变量和多变量分析) 来识别预后因素并构建名ogram.
- 使用来自陆军医学大学第一附属医院的外部队列验证了名图.
主要成果:
- 确定了OS的12个独立风险因素和CSS的6个风险因素,包括年龄,瘤阶段,淋巴结比率和治疗方式.
- 诺米图表表现出强大的预测性能,曲线下的面积 (AUC) 值为1,3,5年后的OS分别为0.807,0.842和0.826.
- 在1,3年和5年CSS的AUC值分别为0.816,0.835和0.841.
- 内部和外部验证都证实了名图的良好的一致性和可靠性.
结论:
- 开发的动态名图是预测囊腺癌存活率的强有力的工具.
- 这种预后模型可以帮助临床医生更好地理解和管理患者的结果.
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