在欧洲国家实现颗粒式能源技术所需普及的可能性
Nik Zielonka1, Evelina Trutnevyte1
1Renewable Energy Systems, Institute for Environmental Sciences (ISE), Section of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Geneva, Geneva, Switzerland.
iScience
|February 25, 2025
概括
能源转型预测显示,欧洲太阳能发电,热和电动汽车的增长显著. 然而,大多数国家可能无法到2050年实现风力发电和沼气净零目标.
科学领域:
- 能源政策和气候变化缓解.
- 技术扩散建模技术扩散建模.
- 欧洲能源系统分析.
背景情况:
- 欧洲能源转型需要大量部署低碳技术,以实现到2050年实现净零温室气体排放目标.
- 当前的环境条件和政策框架影响着实现这些雄心勃勃的目标的可行性.
- 了解关键技术的预计扩散率对于有效的能源规划至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 为从2023年到2050年在39个欧洲国家提供关键能源技术的基线扩散提供概率预测.
- 评估预计的技术能力与到2050年实现净零排放所需的技术能力之间的差距.
- 为讨论在当前条件下能源转型的可行性提供信息.
主要方法:
- 利用72种扩散模型的变体来预测技术采用.
- 使用从2012年到2022年的后预测数据验证了模型性能.
- 基于其预测准确性的加权模型变体.
主要成果:
- 在大多数欧洲国家,预计太阳能光伏,热和电池电动汽车的显著增长.
- 报告指出,大多数国家不太可能以高度的信心实现必要的风力发电和生物气容量,以实现净零排放.
- 确定某些国家对达到所需电池电动汽车容量的信心较低.
- 观察到欧洲国家实现太阳能光伏和热目标的概率和信心水平存在显著差异.
结论:
- 虽然太阳能光伏,热和电动汽车显示出有前途的增长,但风力发电和生物气部署仍然面临重大挑战,以实现2050年净零目标.
- 国家特定因素对实现能源转型目标的可能性有很大影响,特别是对于太阳能和热的采用.
- 调查结果强调,需要制定定制的政策和加快部署战略,以弥合预计的容量差距,以便成功实现能源转型.
更多相关视频
相关概念视频
Behavior of Gas Molecules: Molecular Diffusion, Mean Free Path, and Effusion
28.5K
Although gaseous molecules travel at tremendous speeds (hundreds of meters per second), they collide with other gaseous molecules and travel in many different directions before reaching the desired target. At room temperature, a gaseous molecule will experience billions of collisions per second. The mean free path is the average distance a molecule travels between collisions. The mean free path increases with decreasing pressure; in general, the mean free path for a gaseous molecule will be...
28.5K
Carrier Transport
383
The generation of electrical current in semiconductors is fundamentally driven by two mechanisms: drift and diffusion. These processes are essential for the functionality and performance of semiconductor-based devices.
Drift Current:
The drift of charge carriers is started by an external electric field (E). Charged particles, such as electrons and holes, experience an acceleration between collisions with lattice atoms. For electrons, this results in a drift velocity (vd) given by:
Drift Current:
The drift of charge carriers is started by an external electric field (E). Charged particles, such as electrons and holes, experience an acceleration between collisions with lattice atoms. For electrons, this results in a drift velocity (vd) given by:
383
Protein Diffusion in the Membrane
4.3K
Proteins show rotational as well as lateral diffusion across the membrane. The lateral diffusion of proteins was confirmed through the cell fusion experiment where mouse and human cells were fused, resulting in hybrid cells. When the human and mouse cells fused, the specific membrane proteins on human and mouse cells were marked with the red and green-fluorescent markers, respectively. Initially, the red and green fluorescence was located on the respective hemisphere of the cell. As time...
4.3K
Carrier Generation and Recombination
488
Carrier generation is the process by which electron-hole pairs (EHPs) are created within the semiconductor. In direct-bandgap semiconductors, such as gallium arsenide (GaAs), this occurs efficiently when energy absorption prompts valence electrons to leap into the conduction band, leaving behind holes.
This process is given by the generation rate G and is efficient due to the conservation of momentum between the valence band maximum and conduction band minimum.
Indirect generation involves an...
This process is given by the generation rate G and is efficient due to the conservation of momentum between the valence band maximum and conduction band minimum.
Indirect generation involves an...
488
Atomic Nuclei: Nuclear Spin State Population Distribution
913
Near absolute zero temperatures, in the presence of a magnetic field, the majority of nuclei prefer the lower energy spin-up state to the higher energy spin-down state. As temperatures increase, the energy from thermal collisions distributes the spins more equally between the two states. The Boltzmann distribution equation gives the ratio of the number of spins predicted in the spin −½ (N−) and spin +½ (N+) states.
913
Estimation of the Physical Quantities
4.1K
On many occasions, physicists, other scientists, and engineers need to make estimates of a particular quantity. These are sometimes referred to as guesstimates, order-of-magnitude approximations, back-of-the-envelope calculations, or Fermi calculations. The physicist Enrico Fermi was famous for his ability to estimate various kinds of data with surprising precision. Estimating does not mean guessing a number or a formula at random. Instead, estimation means using prior experience and sound...
4.1K


