热浪对电力可靠性的影响:来自中国停电数据的证据
Jing Liang1, Yueming Lucy Qiu2, Bo Wang3
1School of Management, Harbin Institute of Technology, Harbin, China.
iScience
|February 25, 2025
概括
气候变化带来的热浪显著增加了中国的停电. 这项研究强调,迫切需要升级电网基础设施,以适应气温上升及其对能源系统的影响.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 气候变化研究 气候变化研究
- 能源系统分析 能源系统分析
背景情况:
- 气候变化正在全球加剧热浪.
- 极端的热量给能源基础设施带来压力,增加了停电的风险.
- 了解热浪的影响对于能源系统的弹性至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 实证地评估热浪对中国停电频率和持续时间的影响.
- 量化温度上升,热浪日和停电之间的关系.
- 在不同的气候变化情景下预测未来的停电风险.
主要方法:
- 利用来自中国 (2019-2021) 的高频停电数据.
- 采用固定效应模型来分析热浪和停电之间的关系.
- 纳入气候变化预测 (RCP2.6,RCP4.5,RCP8.5) 用于未来的风险评估.
主要成果:
- 热浪使停电频率增加3.9%至4.0%,停电持续时间增加7.9%至8.3%.
- 每升1摄氏度就会使停电量增加0.1%;每增加1天的热浪就会使停电量增加0.5%.
- 在社会人口统计学群体中观察到停电影响的显著异质性.
结论:
- 热浪对中国能源系统的稳定性构成重大和日益增长的威胁.
- 紧急的电网升级和适应策略是必要的,以减轻未来的停电风险.
- 调查结果为能源基础设施的气候变化适应资源分配提供了信息.
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