从倾向分数-潜在结果框架和实证贝叶斯前后方法对安全效应估计的比较:自适应交通信号控制的案例研究
Pengxiang Zhang1, Asif Mahmud1, Vikash V Gayah1
1Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA 16802, USA.
经验贝叶斯 (EB) 和倾向得分-潜在结果 (PSPO) 方法为自适应交通信号控制 (ATSC) 技术提供了类似的安全有效性估计. 存在微小的差异,但这两种方法都表明ATSC实施后碰撞频率略有增加.
科学领域:
- 交通工程是交通工程.
- 运输安全运输安全
- 统计建模 统计建模
背景情况:
- 适应性交通信号控制 (ATSC) 技术越来越多地被部署用于优化交通流.
- 评估ATSC的安全影响对于运输基础设施的发展至关重要.
- 比较安全有效性估计的统计方法是必不可少的.
研究的目的:
- 为了比较从实证贝叶斯 (EB) 前后和倾向得分-潜在结果 (PSPO) 方法中得出的安全有效性估计.
- 评估EB和PSPO在评估ATSC安全方面的一致性和差异.
- 确定ATSC在交通交叉点的实施对安全的影响.
主要方法:
- 利用了宾夕法尼亚州338个十字路口的数据集,并部署了ATSC.
- 应用经验贝叶斯 (EB) 之前后分析.
- 员工倾向得分-潜在结果 (PSPO) 建模.
主要成果:
- EB和PSPO方法产生了统计学上相似的崩修改因子 (CMF).
- 在两种方法之间观察到CMF值的微小变化.
- 实施ATSC与各种伤害严重程度和交叉路口类型的预期撞车频率略有增加有关,尽管并不总是统计学上显著.
结论:
- EB和PSPO方法为ATSC提供一致的安全有效性估计.
- EB和PSPO之间的方法差异可能导致CMF的微小变化.
- 可能需要进一步的研究,以充分了解ATSC的安全影响,特别是关于统计学意义.
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