开发和验证一个动态名谱,用于预测有假牙的老年人认知障碍风险:从查尔斯和CLHLS数据分析
Tongtong Guo1,2,3, Xiaoqing Zhao2,4, Xinyi Zhang2,4
1School of Management, Shandong Second Medical University, Weifang, China.
BMC geriatrics
|February 25, 2025
概括
这项研究开发了一种名谱,用于预测戴假牙的老年人的认知障碍,确定年龄,居住地,教育,日常生活活动和抑郁症作为关键因素. 这种工具有助于为这一群体规划预防性干预.
科学领域:
- 老年学是一门学科.
- 认知科学 认知科学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 认知障碍是人口老龄化的一个重大问题.
- 假牙使用是潜在的,可识别的认知衰退风险因素.
- 关于中国老年人使用假牙和认知衰退的研究是有限的.
研究的目的:
- 开发和验证用于预测认知障碍风险的动态名ogram.
- 确定老年假牙佩戴者认知障碍的关键预测因素.
- 为早期风险评估和干预提供一个工具.
主要方法:
- 利用了2066名假牙佩戴者 (CHARLS2018) 的数据进行开发,以及3840名 (CLHLS2018) 的数据进行外部验证.
- 用于数据平衡的合成少数群体过量采样技术 (SMOTE).
- 使用LASSO回归用于特征选择和物流回归用于模型构建.
- 使用ROC曲线,校准和决策曲线分析评估模型性能.
主要成果:
- 确定了五个重要的预测因素:年龄,居住地,教育,日常生活中的工具活动和抑郁症.
- 诺米图表表现出强大的预测性能,AUC为0.854 (发育),0.841 (内部验证) 和0.856 (外部验证).
- 校准曲线证实了预测和观察到的认知障碍风险之间的良好一致性.
结论:
- 经过验证的牙谱,包括年龄,居住地,教育,日常生活活动和抑郁症,可以预测老年假牙佩戴者的认知障碍.
- 命名图表表现出可接受的歧视和临床实用性.
- 该工具可以帮助医疗保健专业人员实施有针对性的预防策略,以帮助拥有假牙的老年人的认知健康.
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