灾难后家庭流离失所持续时间的预测模型.
Nicole Paul1, Carmine Galasso2, Jack Baker3
1Institute for Risk and Disaster Reduction, University College London, London, UK.
Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
|February 26, 2025
概括
灾害流离失所模型预测了家庭在流离失所的时间. 整合物理和社会经济因素可以改善预测,有助于理解和减轻灾害对人类的影响.
科学领域:
- 灾害风险分析 灾害风险分析
- 环境社会学环境社会学
- 地理信息系统 (GIS) 是一个地理信息系统.
背景情况:
- 最近的数据显示,1.1%的美国家庭因灾害而流离失所.
- 20%的流离失所家庭面临一个多月的流离失所.
- 长时间的流离失所造成了严重的困难,但在风险分析中经常被忽视.
研究的目的:
- 提出家庭流离失所时间和回报的预测模型.
- 为了使流离失所时间在灾难风险分析中的实际整合.
- 提高对灾害对人类影响的整体理解.
主要方法:
- 开发了使用物理和社会经济因素的分类树模型 (TreeP,TreeP&S).
- 使用随机森林模型 (ForestP&S) 来提高预测能力.
- 在新泽西州大西洋城的风场景中应用模型.
主要成果:
- 森林P&S模型有效地预测了迁移的持续时间和回报率.
- 关键预测因素包括物理因素 (财产损坏,不卫生条件) 和社会经济因素 (占有地位,收入).
- 模型证明了将流离失所时间纳入风险评估的可行性.
结论:
- 建议对家庭流离失所的持续时间和返回进行预测模型.
- 整合物理和社会经济因素显著提高了预测准确度.
- 这些模型可以增强灾害风险分析,并为缓解策略提供信息.
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