估计气候敏感野火风险和树木死亡率模型,用于美国大规模森林碳排放预测
Raju Pokharel1, Gregory Latta2, Sara B Ohrel3
1Department of Forestry, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI 48824, USA.
概括
这项研究使用库存和气候数据在美国森林中模拟野火风险和树木死亡率. 它估计了森林火灾造成的每年大量二氧化碳 (CO2) 排放,有助于风险管理和气候变化洞察.
科学领域:
- 林业和环境科学 林业和环境科学
- 气候变化研究 气候变化研究
- 生态建模 生态建模
背景情况:
- 野火对美国森林构成重大威胁,造成生物质损失和大量二氧化碳 (CO2) 的释放.
- 准确估计野火风险和相关的二氧化碳排放对于有效的森林管理和气候变化减缓战略至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 开发和应用用于估计美国森林野火风险,树木死亡率和二氧化碳排放的模型.
- 在全国范围内绘制野火概率和树木死亡率的空间分布图.
- 证明这些模型对识别高风险区域和告知政策的有用性.
主要方法:
- 利用超过15万个森林库存和分析 (FIA) 图片和气候参数来构建野火发生概率和活树生物质损失模型.
- 制定了国家一级的地图,说明了野火概率和树木死亡率的空间分配.
- 纳入了诸如气候条件,森林所有权,地表生物质和站立年龄等因素进入非线性模型.
主要成果:
- 据估计,美国森林野火每年产生的二氧化碳排放量在610万至3110万之间,取决于燃烧速度 (低到灾难性).
- 确定了野火风险,树木死亡率和气候和森林特征等影响因素之间的复杂,非线性关系.
- 制作国家地图,可视化野火风险和生物质损失,对利益相关者有价值.
结论:
- 开发的模型有效地估计了美国森林的野火风险,树木死亡率和潜在的二氧化碳排放.
- 这些工具可以帮助土地所有者,管理者和机构识别高风险区域并量化潜在的碳影响.
- 这些模型为评估在不断变化的气候条件下未来的火灾风险和理解与气候变化相关的野火动态提供了基础.
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