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在气候变化条件下,高危堤的超越风险在气候变化条件下存在
Wan Noorul Hafilah Wan Ariffin1, Lariyah Mohd Sidek1, Hidayah Basri1
1Dam Safety and Sustainability Intelligence Group, Institute of Energy Infrastructure, Universiti Tenaga Nasional (UNITEN), Selangor, Malaysia.
PloS one
|February 27, 2025
概括
气候变化增加了像巴图大这样的堤大的洪水风险. 预测显示,未来的流入量超过设计容量,需要采取适应性安全措施,以防止超标和保护社区.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 水文学的水文学
- 气候科学 气候科学
背景情况:
- 气候变化通过增加洪水排放和改变水文负载,增加了对高危堤的威胁.
- 由于降雨模式的变化和极端天气事件,大覆盖风险是一个重大问题.
- 马来西亚的巴图大在未来的气候情景下面面临着潜在的超越风险.
研究的目的:
- 评估气候变化对极端降雨事件的影响及其对水安全的影响.
- 从2020年到2100年,根据各种气候情景 (RCP4.5,RCP6.0,RCP8.5) 评估巴图大的超标风险.
- 为适应性水安全管理和防洪措施提供关键的见解.
主要方法:
- 利用结合模型相互比较项目5 (CMIP5) 区域气候模型预测.
- 应用了线性缩放方法 (LSM) 来纠正来自三个区域气候模型 (RCM) 的降雨数据的偏差.
- 使用HEC-HMS水文模型模拟可能的最大洪水 (PMF) 并根据气候场景和因素更新降雨强度-持续时间-频率 (IDF) 曲线.
主要成果:
- 预计预计的流入事件将在所有未来的气候场景中超过巴图大的设计流入.
- RCP8.5场景显示了最高的流入值,特别是在本世纪末,增加了超标概率.
- 具体预测显示PMF超过20% (RCP8.5,世纪末,ARI 50) 和15% (RCP6.0,世纪中期,ARI 50000),世纪初的RCP4.5显示ARI 100000的10%增加.
结论:
- 气候变化显著提高了像巴图大这样的堤大的溢出风险.
- 为了减轻这些风险,迫切需要采取主动和自适应的水安全管理策略.
- 加强关键基础设施和实施强有力的防洪措施对于下游社区安全至关重要.
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