估计每次感染的登革热和寨卡的成本和负担,作为抗体依赖增强功能的函数
1Departments of Mathematics and Teacher & Administrator Preparation, University of Texas at Arlington, Arlington, Texas, United States of America.
PLoS neglected tropical diseases
|February 27, 2025
概括
抗体依赖增强 (ADE) 显著增加了登革热和寨卡病毒感染的经济和疾病负担. 登革热疫苗接种 疫苗接种
科学领域:
- 病毒学 病毒学
- 免疫学 免疫学 免疫学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 抗体依赖增强 (ADE) 在登革热病毒 (DENV) 感染严重程度方面发挥着关键作用.
- ADE也可能影响寨卡病毒 (ZIKV) 感染,寨卡病毒是一种通过与DENV相同的载体传播的黄状病毒.
- 登革热疫苗接种对ZIKV传播和疾病负担的影响需要评估.
研究的目的:
- 估计每例登革热和寨卡病毒感染的经济成本和疾病负担,有或没有ADE.
- 评估登革热疫苗接种对双重DENV和ZIKV疫情的潜在影响.
- 开发每次感染的加权平均值,用于人口层面的建模.
主要方法:
- 收集经济成本和疾病负担估计的主要参考资料.
- 根据ADE和非ADE情景计算DENV和ZIKV感染的病例成本和负担.
- 制定每次感染影响的加权平均值,考虑十个Dengvaxia临床试验国家.
主要成果:
- ADE使每例登革热的死亡人数增加了2-16的因素.
- 由于严重的结果,ADE使每例寨卡病例的死亡人数增加了两倍以上.
- 登革热疫苗对登革热死亡人数的影响在不同先前血清型的情况下更大;高登革热血清阳性降低了ADE对寨卡病毒死亡人数的恶化.
结论:
- ADE显著加剧了登革热和寨卡病毒感染的负担,特别是寨卡病毒.
- 登革热疫苗接种策略必须考虑对寨卡病毒传播和严重性的潜在影响.
- 结合ADE的数学建模对于估计登革热疫苗接种在共流行地区对公共卫生的影响至关重要.
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