全球紧急疫苗库存的动态:系统分析和对霍乱的应用
Donovan Guttieres1, Carla Van Riet1, Nico Vandaele1
1Access-To-Medicines Research Centre, KU Leuven, Vlamingenstraat 83, Leuven 3000, Belgium.
Vaccine
|February 27, 2025
概括
全球紧急疫苗库存面临挑战,原因是传染病爆发的增加和复杂的管理. 需要改进决策支持工具,以整合供需,以获得更好的公共卫生结果.
科学领域:
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 全球卫生安全 全球卫生安全
背景情况:
- 传染病爆发的频率和规模正在增加.
- 紧急疫苗库存对于快速响应至关重要,但长期管理却很复杂.
研究的目的:
- 分析全球紧急疫苗库存在公共卫生中的长期作用.
- 了解影响库存性能的卫生系统结构,以霍乱为案例研究.
主要方法:
- 定性研究设计,整合文献审查和专家采访.
- 系统分析使用定性因果循环图来建模库存行为.
主要成果:
- 由于需求增加和有效性的证据,口服霍乱疫苗库存短缺仍然存在.
- 供应限制延迟了竞选活动,并阻碍了预防性使用,增加了人口的脆弱性.
- 吸引制造商需要有效的风险分担政策来解决需求不确定性.
结论:
- 疾病模式,疫苗接种策略和市场的不断变化需要更好地整合供需决策支持工具.
- 目前的模型需要扩展,以考虑各种因素的异步变化.
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