西太平洋地区低收入和中低收入国家的经济发展,酒精消费和预期寿命:结构方程建模研究
Jürgen Rehm1,2,3,4, Huan Jiang1,2, Ahmed S Hassan1
1Centre for Addiction and Mental Health, Toronto, Ontario, Canada.
BMJ public health
|February 28, 2025
概括
低收入国家的经济增长与增加的酒精消费和减少的预期寿命有关. 实施酒精控制政策对于最大限度地提高经济发展带来的健康效益至关重要.
科学领域:
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 卫生经济学 卫生经济学
- 流行病学 流行病学
背景情况:
- 从历史上看,经济转型与高收入国家的预期寿命增加有关.
- 在低收入和中等收入国家经济转型期间,酒精消费的影响仍未得到充分研究.
研究的目的:
- 研究经济增长,酒精消费和中低收入国家经历经济转型的预期寿命之间的关系.
- 在经济发展过程中量化酒精消费对预期寿命的影响.
主要方法:
- 用结构方程建模分析了20年来世卫组织西太平洋地区6个国家的数据.
- 该研究评估了经济发展,预期寿命,人均酒精消费 (APC),过去一年的饮酒者和酒精导致的死亡率之间的关联.
- 纠正了自行回归效应,估计了APC对预期寿命的直接影响.
主要成果:
- 经济发展与预期寿命和酒精消费有着强烈的积极关联.
- 增加的酒精消费与预期寿命的减少直接相关,男性平均损失1.76年,女性平均损失0.59年.
- 人均GDP增加1000美元与预期寿命增加0.94%和APC增加76.8%有关.
结论:
- 预计在低收入国家到中低收入国家的经济转型期间,酒精消费量将增加,这将对预期寿命产生负面影响.
- 在观察到的关系中,国家层面存在显著的异质性.
- 建议实施酒精控制政策,以确保经济增长转化为改善公共卫生结果.
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