连续负收入冲击和全因死亡率的关联:中国的一项纵向研究
Nan Xiao1, Ran Li1, Shanshan Li1
1Peking University, Beijing, China.
BMJ public health
|February 28, 2025
概括
经历多次收入下降或相对收入轨迹下降,会显著增加中国的死亡风险,尤其是那些财富较低的人. 政策应侧重于建立抵御金融冲击的弹性.
科学领域:
- 健康的社会经济决定因素
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 流行病学 流行病学
背景情况:
- 了解经济不稳定的健康影响至关重要,特别是在发展中国家.
- 收入波动和负收入冲击在全球范围内越来越令人担忧.
- 关于发展中国家收入冲击与健康结果之间的关联的研究有限.
研究的目的:
- 调查绝对收入下降和相对收入轨迹与中国死亡率之间的关联.
- 检查连续收入冲击对健康结果的影响.
- 评估相对收入变化对死亡风险的影响.
主要方法:
- 利用了中国健康与营养调查 (1989-1997) 4757名参与者的数据.
- 收入下降定义为连续采访之间的收入下降≥50%.
- 在2000年至2015年间使用了相对收入轨迹和确定的死亡率的潜在类型模型.
主要成果:
- 2066名参与者 (43.43%) 经历了一次收入下降,477人 (10.03%) 经历了两次或更多.
- 两次或两次以上的收入下降与1.42倍的死亡风险增加有关 (HR 1.42;95% CI 1.04-1.93).
- 下行相对收入轨迹 (总是低,下降,增加) 与2.92至3.61倍的死亡风险增加有关,特别是在低财富人群中.
结论:
- 绝对收入下降和相对收入轨迹下降都与中国的死亡率增加有关.
- 建议采取加强抵御收入冲击和财务负担的政策.
- 调查结果强调了贫困人口对经济不稳定及其健康后果的脆弱性.
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