在一个变暖的世界里,调和全球干旱土地扩张预测的差异
1State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Hazards Risk Governance (ESPHR), Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China.
Global change biology
|March 1, 2025
概括
大陆的干燥趋势被夸大了,因为潜在的蒸发转化率 (PET) 被高估了. 新的方法显示干燥较弱,干旱地区扩张有限,解决了关于全球干旱地区动态的争论.
科学领域:
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 水文学的水文学
- 环境科学 环境科学
背景情况:
- 大陆的干燥和干旱地的扩张与环境退化和荒漠化有关.
- 目前的干旱度指数评估与绿化和流量增加的观察相冲突,质疑干燥趋势的准确性.
- 全球变暖预测大陆干旱和干旱地区动态需要准确的评估方法.
研究的目的:
- 通过纠正潜在蒸发透气 (PET) 过高估计,重新评估大陆干燥趋势和干旱地区扩张.
- 解决观察到的环境变化和预测的干燥趋势之间的差异.
- 提供气候变化下的全球干旱地区动态的准确预测.
主要方法:
- 使用基于能源的潜在蒸发透气 (PET) 估计器来偏差纠正干旱度指数.
- 从修正的干旱度指数中得出的干燥趋势与广泛使用的Penman方程中的干燥趋势进行了比较.
- 分析了32个气候模型的生态水文和水气候预测,使用修正的干旱度指数.
主要成果:
- 大陆的干燥比以前使用Penman方程估计的 (61%-65%) 显著较弱和不那么广泛 (占全球陆地面积的47%).
- 预计干旱地区的扩张只会影响全球陆地面积的2.1%,即使在高排放的情况下.
- 经过修正的干旱度指数和模型预测显示,全球干旱地区的面积没有显著变化.
结论:
- 广泛使用的Penman方程显著高估了潜在的蒸发转化 (PET),夸大了大陆干燥趋势.
- 全球干旱地区的扩张比以前预测的要小,对环境退化评估有重大影响.
- 这些发现解决了关于全球干旱土地扩张的辩论,并提高了对气候系统对陆地生态系统影响的理解.
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