预测松木线虫入侵的高风险区域:综合气候适宜性,宿主可用性和载体主导地位
Facheng Guo1, Guizhen Gao1, Qian Sun1
1College of Forestry and Landscape Architecture, Xinjiang Agricultural University, Urumqi 830052, China.
The Science of the total environment
|March 1, 2025
概括
气候变化正在扩大松病 (PWD) 和其载体的范围,威胁着森林健康和碳储存. 未来的预测显示风险区域增加,需要紧急制定松木线虫 (PWN) 的管理策略.
科学领域:
- 森林病理学和昆虫学
- 气候变化 生态学 生态学
- 保护生物学 保护生物学
背景情况:
- 松木线虫 (PWN,Bursaphelenchus xylophilus) 导致松病 (PWD),导致大量树木死亡,生物多样性丧失,对森林碳储存产生影响.
- 气候变化改变了松树宿主和载体昆虫的分布,加剧了PWD传播和增加感染风险.
- 气候变化对松树 - 主体 - 载体相互作用的全球影响仍然不太清楚,这阻碍了有效的森林管理.
研究的目的:
- 在各种气候变化场景下,预测松树及其载体昆虫的潜在地理分布.
- 确定PWD传播的高风险区域,并分析载体占主导地位.
- 为制定森林健康管理和保护战略提供参考.
主要方法:
- 利用biomod2综合模型预测松树和载体昆虫的潜在地理分布.
- 在三个温室气体排放场景 (SSP126,SSP245,SSP585) 下,对2050,2070和2090年的模拟分布.
- 分析了载体主导地位,生态的相似性和基于非生物和生物因素的风险区域.
主要成果:
- 预计适合松树菌的地区将向更高的度转移.
- 主导的载体昆虫 (Monochamus spp.) 在它们身上. 与松树结有很高的利基相似性,表明需要进行种群控制.
- 预计北美和欧洲的PWD高风险区将大幅扩大,可能将碳汇转化为来源.
结论:
- 气候变化促进了松树和相关载体向北扩散,增加了松树的威胁.
- 针对PWN及其载体的综合管理策略对于减轻PWD影响至关重要.
- 了解这些动态对于保护森林生态系统,生物多样性和碳捕获能力至关重要.
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