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基于系统动态的合协调发展山西省的水资源-经济-生态系统
Aili Wang1, Shuaitao Liang1, Shunsheng Wang2
1School of Water Conservancy, North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power, No. 136, Jinshui East Road, Zhengzhou, Henan, 450046, China.
Scientific reports
|March 2, 2025
概括
这项研究评估了山西省的水资源,经济和生态的结合. 预计到2035年全面发展将实现最高的协调,改善区域稳定.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 区域经济学 区域经济学
- 资源管理 资源管理
背景情况:
- 区域安全和稳定受到水资源,经济发展和生态健康的相互作用的重大影响.
- 西省在平衡这些相互连接的系统方面面临着独特的挑战.
研究的目的:
- 开发一个指数系统和模型,以评估山西省水资源,经济和生态的合协调程度.
- 分析各种指标对这种合协调的影响.
- 预测到2035年的未来合协调场景.
主要方法:
- 开发水资源,经济和生态的合协调度模型.
- 应用灰色相关性分析来确定关键影响指标 (共21个).
- 构建一个用于场景预测的系统动态模拟模型.
主要成果:
- 水资源,经济和生态的综合评价指数显示了整体上升趋势.
- 观察到城市间发展差异很大,有些城市正在衰落.
- 经济子系统指标,特别是人均GDP,对合协调产生了最重大的影响 (34.02%的相关性).
结论:
- 该研究强调了山西省水,经济和生态之间的关键相互依存关系.
- 经济因素,特别是人均GDP,在系统合中起着至关重要的作用.
- 预计到2035年实现全面发展将产生最高的合协调程度 (0.94),促进可持续的区域发展.
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