基于三方进化游戏的中国碳排放交易机制的稳定性分析
Nanyu Chen1, Yanzhi Zhao2, Hongyu He3
1Shenyang University, Shenyang, 110044, China.
Scientific reports
|March 2, 2025
概括
中国的碳交易体系的稳定性取决于政府成本和消费者行为,而不仅仅是碳价格. 综合性激励对于企业参与和绿色转型至关重要.
科学领域:
- 环境经济学环境经济学
- 游戏理论 游戏理论
- 可持续发展 可持续发展 可持续发展
背景情况:
- 中国的碳排放交易系统 (ETS) 在与国际实践保持一致方面面临挑战.
- 了解影响中国ETS稳定的因素对于其成功至关重要.
- 消费者行为在碳市场中的作用仍然未被充分探索.
研究的目的:
- 研究中国碳排放交易体系的进化动态和稳定性.
- 分析政府,企业和消费者行为对市场结果的影响.
- 为提高中国ETS的效率和有效性提供政策建议.
主要方法:
- 开发一个三方进化游戏模型.
- 将消费者行为,包括群体效应纳入模型.
- 模拟和分析影响市场稳定和绿色转型的关键因素.
主要成果:
- 政府监管成本,消费者偏好和企业投资成本是市场稳定的重要决定因素.
- 仅碳价格对企业参与碳市场的影响有限.
- 消费者需求方面的动态,特别是群体行为,在市场演变中起着至关重要的作用.
结论:
- 优化政策设计需要考虑超出碳价格范围的更广泛的激励措施.
- 提高市场效率需要将消费者行为纳入系统动态.
- 有效的政策可以促进低碳转型,提高中国ETS的稳定性.
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