与尼泊尔结核病流行相关的环境因素的空间自相关性,2020-2023年
Roshan Kumar Mahato1, Kyaw Min Htike1, Alex Bagas Koro1
1Faculty of Public Health, Khon Kaen University, Khon Kaen, Thailand.
Infectious diseases of poverty
|March 2, 2025
概括
尼泊尔的结核病 (TB) 患病率与土地表面温度,城市化和降雨等环境因素有关. 了解这些地理模式是控制结核病传播的关键.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 流行病学 流行病学
背景情况:
- 尼泊尔面临着严重的结核病 (TB) 负担,每年约有7万例新增病例.
- 2022年的发病率为每10万人中有229人,这表明公共卫生面临着持续的挑战.
研究的目的:
- 调查从2020年到2023财年尼泊尔结核病通知的地理分布.
- 确定环境决定因素,包括陆地表面温度 (LST),城市化和降雨对结核病患病率的影响.
主要方法:
- 利用地理信息系统 (GIS) 在地区层面对结核病发病率进行空间分析.
- 采用了空间协会 (LISA) 和空间回归模型 (OLS,SLM,SEM) 的双变量局部指标.
- 来自尼泊尔国家结核病控制中心 (NTCC) 的结核病数据为2020-2023财年.
主要成果:
- 在班克,帕尔萨和罗塔哈特等地区观察到高结核病患病率的一致集群.
- 在环境因素和结核病患病率之间检测到显著的正空间自相关性 (提供莫兰的I值).
- 陆地表面夜间温度 (LSTN),城市化和降雨是重要的预测因素,解释了2021-2022财年高达72.1%的差异.
结论:
- 环境因素明显影响尼泊尔结核病的空间分布.
- 强调需要将环境卫生政策与结核病控制战略相结合.
- 强调通过考虑生态决定因素来管理结核病发病率的综合方法.
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