巴西生物乙醇生物喷气燃料的案例:使用历史市场数据进行基于优化的分析
Madelynn J Watson1, Aline V da Silva2, Pedro G Machado3
1Department of Chemical and Biomolecular Engineering, University of Notre Dame, 250 Nieuwland Hall, Notre Dame, Indiana 46556, United States.
Industrial & engineering chemistry research
|March 3, 2025
概括
从甘生产可持续航空燃料需要价格溢价,但灵活的运营可以提高利. 这项研究指导了巴西和全球的生物喷气燃料政策和技术发展.
科学领域:
- 农业经济学 农业经济学
- 化学工程是化学工程的重要组成部分.
- 环境科学 环境科学
背景情况:
- 全球航空业寻求减少温室气体 (GHG) 排放.
- 来自甘的生物喷气燃料提供了一个可持续的替代方案.
- 巴西目前的甘厂运营缺乏市场灵活性.
研究的目的:
- 分析综合甘工厂的最佳运行,以实现可持续的航空燃料 (SAF) 生产.
- 确定使用酒精到喷气 (ATJ) 技术生产生物喷气燃料的经济可行性和必要的激励措施.
- 评估运营灵活性对利能力的影响,指导政策制定.
主要方法:
- 两个阶段的随机线性编程模型.
- 利用来自巴西的历史时间序列商品价格数据.
- 对转换成本,运营成本和SAF激励措施进行了敏感性分析.
主要成果:
- 目前ATJ技术所需的保费从每升0.4美元到2美元不等.
- 新兴的ATJ技术需要每升0.1美元至1.25美元的溢价.
- 一个灵活的甘厂每年可以产生额外的R$600万,主要来自ATJ工艺灵活性.
结论:
- 从甘生产生物喷气燃料是可行的,但需要特定的经济激励.
- 在甘厂和ATJ工艺中,运营灵活性对于利至关重要.
- 调查结果为巴西的生物喷气燃料政策和技术发展提供了信息,对于供应链扩张具有全球适用性.
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