评估气候变化对韩国景观树木分布和可持续性的影响,使用基于MaxEnt的建模
Dong-Joo Kim1, Na-Yeon Han2, Mi Na Choi1,3
1Environmental Impact Assessment, Division of Ecological Assessment, National Institute of Ecology, Seocheon, Republic of Korea.
PloS one
|March 3, 2025
概括
气候变化威胁到像Stewartia koreana,Betula ermanii和Taxus cuspidata这样的景观树木. 未来的适宜性模型预测北向转移和减少区域,特别是在严重的场景下,突出了适应性保护策略的需要.
科学领域:
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 园艺园艺 园艺园艺
背景情况:
- 气候变化对全球物种产生重大影响,但城市环境中的景观树木尚未得到充分研究.
- 景观树木具有特定的气候需求,使它们易受环境条件变化的影响.
研究的目的:
- 为了预测三个本地景观树的未来气候可持续性:Stewartia koreana,Betula ermanii和Taxus cuspidata.
- 评估不同气候场景 (SSP2-4.5和SSP5-8.5) 对这些物种适合息地的影响.
主要方法:
- 利用最大 (MaxEnt) 模型预测未来气候场景下的物种分布.
- 进行了气候适应性和叠加地图的时间序列分析,以分类区域.
- 采用了分类系统:"可持续适用性"",风险"",流入"",丢失"和"可变"地区.
主要成果:
- 对这三种物种来说,气候适宜性普遍向北转移,长期适宜区域减少.
- 在SSP2-4.5期间,适合S. koreana的面积增加,而B. ermanii和T. cuspidata在2090年代减少.
- 在SSP5-8.5下,适宜面积大幅减少:S. koreana减少了33.6%,B. ermanii减少了98.9%,T. cuspidata减少了90.1%.
结论:
- 该研究确定了可持续性和风险领域,强调需要有针对性的管理策略.
- 在高排放SSP5-8.5情景下,在"可持续适用性"地区的显著下降被注意到.
- 物种分布模型对于在景观规划和树木保护中为适应性策略提供信息至关重要,以减轻气候变化影响.
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