在气候和经济不确定性加剧的情况下,为二氧化碳去除提供弹性植树策略
Frankie H T Cho1,2,3, Paolo Aglonucci4, Ian J Bateman1
1Land, Environment, Economics and Policy Institute, Department of Economics, University of Exeter, Exeter EX4 4PU, United Kingdom.
概括
选择种植树木的策略涉及对未来的气候和经济状况的不确定性. 调整策略可以降低风险,但种植树木仍然是一个具有成本效益的碳排放解决方案.
科学领域:
- 环境科学环境科学
- 适应气候变化 适应气候变化
- 林业和生态恢复 林业和生态恢复
背景情况:
- 全球各国承诺扩大森林以实现脱碳,需要采取战略种植决策.
- 关于树种,数量和位置的决定是在未来气候和经济状况的重大不确定性下做出的.
- 气候预测的不确定性对植树项目的长期成功构成风险.
研究的目的:
- 量化英国气候和经济条件的不确定性.
- 检查不确定性下的决策如何能为最佳的树木种植策略提供信息.
- 评估树木种植的成本效益和风险减轻潜力,以消除碳排放.
主要方法:
- 利用了英国的一个案例研究,这个国家致力于净零排放.
- 与未来气候场景相关的量化不确定性 (高排放与近期历史路径).
- 在不确定性方法下应用现代决策来分析种植战略影响.
主要成果:
- 在高排放和近历史的未来情景之间,最佳的种植策略有很大差异.
- 在近乎历史的条件下实施高排放未来的战略会产生巨大的社会成本.
- 将不确定性纳入决策过程可以确定多元化风险并降低高成本结果的可能性的策略.
结论:
- 通过种植策略的选择来降低风险的范围是有限的,仍然存在持续的风险.
- 尽管存在固有的风险,但与替代品相比,种植树木是一种非常具有成本效益的碳去除方法.
- 通过不确定性分析进行战略植树,对于实现脱碳目标至关重要.
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