从1955年到2022年,中国的白病流行病学在变化
Zengliang Wang1, Ke Li2, Yuanhua Liu3,4
1Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, Jinan, Shandong, China.
Infectious diseases of poverty
|March 3, 2025
概括
70多年来,中国的白病已经显著下降,但在南方地区仍然令人担忧. 气候和社会经济因素影响传播,需要有针对性的预防,特别是在极端天气事件期间.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 动物传播疾病 动物传播疾病
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 由于Leptospira细菌引起的全球公共卫生问题 - - 牛皮病 - - 自1955年以来,在中国已成为一种必须报告的疾病.
- 在中国,白病的流行病学模式已经在近七十年的时间里演变.
研究的目的:
- 描述从1955年到2022年中国白病的空间,时间和人口统计模式.
- 探索影响莱普托斯皮罗斯感染风险的因素.
主要方法:
- 分析国家监控数据 (1955-2022年) 使用波段时间序列,全球莫兰的I,和时空扫描统计数据.
- 贝叶斯空间时空建模用于识别白病发生的风险因素.
主要成果:
- 报告有超过2500万例病例,其中91%来自7月至10月. 发病率在20世纪60年代至80年代达到顶峰,然后从2005年至2022年稳定在低水平 (0.07/100,000).
- 病例主要发生在中国南部 (>99%),随着时间的推移,空间聚类的增加.
- 确定了关键的风险因素:年平均降水量,人均国内生产总值和农业机械功率.
结论:
- 中国的白病发病率有所下降,但仍存在南北差异,南方地区仍然面临高风险.
- 气候和社会经济因素对疾病模式有着复杂的影响.
- 有针对性的预防至关重要,特别是在易受暴雨和洪水影响的地区,以防止潜在的复苏.
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