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在中国西北部气候变化下的葡萄酒的时空空间分布

Yanyan Liu^1,2, Xuejia Shi^1,3, Hongjuan Du⁴

¹Plateau Atmosphere and Environment Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province, School of Atmospheric Sciences Chengdu University of Information Technology Chengdu Sichuan China.

Ecology and evolution

|March 4, 2025

概括

气候变化可能会扩大中国西北部适合葡萄酒种植的地区,像黑兰山的山脚区这样的地区显示出高潜力. 关键因素包括温度,降水和土壤pH值,尽管极端高温会带来风险.

科学领域:

农业科学农业科学
气候科学气候科学
葡萄种植葡萄种植葡萄种植

背景情况:

中国西北部有利的土壤支持葡萄种植,用于酒.
气候变化对最佳葡萄种植地区和葡萄酒行业构成重大风险.
了解未来的适用性对于区域资源利用和产业规划至关重要.

研究的目的:

评估合模型对比项目第六阶段 (CMIP6) 在中国西北地区的气候模型的性能.
为了模拟葡萄酒的未来时空分布,在不同的气候场景下适合的区域.
确定影响葡萄酒适合性的关键气候和环境因素.

主要方法:

评估了9个CMIP6气候模型的温度和降水模拟准确性.
使用选定的模型和气候场景 (SSP245,SSP585) 模拟未来适合葡萄种植的地区.
分析了温度,降水,土壤pH值和海拔高度等因素对适用性的影响.

主要成果:

在模拟气候变量方面,EC-Earth3模型表现出强的性能.
从历史上看,高度适合的地区包括黑兰山的山脚,黄河地区,山和天山山脉的山脚.
预计在SSP245和SSP585情景下,合适的地区将扩大,SSP245在2055-2085年之前将比SSP585扩大更多.
接近地表的1月份温度 (tas1),7月至9月降水量 (pr79),土壤pH值 (ph) 和海拔 (dem) 是关键的影响因素.
1月份温度的适度上升可能有利于过冬,但夏季的极端高温事件和冬季高温带来风险.

结论:

预计适合葡萄种植区的整体空间分布模式将在很大程度上保持一致.
预计气候变化将扩大中国西北地区的适合葡萄种植地区,特别是在SSP245情景下.
需要谨慎管理,以减轻与极端温度相关的风险,并在气候变化中优化葡萄种植.

关键词:

在CMIP6模型中.马克斯恩特马克斯恩特中国西北地区.时间空间分布的分布.葡萄酒葡萄酒葡萄酒的葡萄

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