跑步活动与在职业足球比赛中进球几率之间的关联
Ermanno Rampinini1,2, Marco Martin1,3, Nicola Riva4
1Human Performance Laboratory, MAPEI Sport Research Centre, Olgiate Olona, Varese, Italy.
Research in sports medicine (Print)
|March 4, 2025
概括
与对手相比,较高的总距离和高速跑步 (VHS) 显著增加了职业足球中进球几率. 跑步活动的相对差异对得分机会的影响比绝对水平更大.
科学领域:
- 运动科学 运动科学 运动科学
- 绩效分析 绩效分析
- 足球分析 足球分析
背景情况:
- 了解体育活动和进球之间的关系对于优化职业足球团队表现至关重要.
- 以前的研究已经探索了各种物理指标,但相对跑步差异对对手的具体影响需要进一步调查.
研究的目的:
- 评估身体活动指标 (总距离和高速跑步) 与职业足球中得分的进球之间的关联.
- 为了确定是否比对手进行更多或更少的体育活动会影响进球概率.
- 为了比较绝对体力活动水平与团队之间的相对差异对得分结果的影响.
主要方法:
- 收集了意甲球队的总距离 (TD) 和20公里/小时以上的距离 (VHS) 的数据,包括表现"最好"和"最差"的球队及其对手.
- 分析了在比赛中得分的进球.
- 计算的赔率比率 (OR) 根据高/低的运行水平和5分钟和15分钟间隔的团队之间的相对差异来估计得分的可能性.
主要成果:
- 在5分钟 (ORs: 19.8, 16.1) 和15分钟 (ORs: 11.5, 11.5) 的时间间隔内,比对手进行更高的总距离增加了"最佳"和"最差"球队得分的几率.
- 比对手更高的高速运行 (VHS) 增加了"最佳"和"最差"球队在5分钟间隔中的得分几率 (ORs:3.7,2.5) 和"最佳"球队在15分钟间隔中的得分几率 (OR:3.3).
- 团队之间跑步活动的相对差异显示,与绝对活动水平相比,得分几率更高.
结论:
- 与对手相比,增加总距离和高速运行与在职业足球中得分进球的可能性更高密切相关.
- 团队之间的比较物理输出,而不是仅仅是绝对表现,是进球成功的重要预测因素.
- 这些发现为旨在提高足球进攻效率的战术策略和训练方案提供了宝贵的见解.
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