在一个大热带半干旱盆地中建模输入和动态
1Department of Hydraulic and Environmental Engineering, Federal University of Ceará - UFC, BLB 713, Center of Technology, Fortaleza, Ceará, Brazil. iran@deha.ufc.br.
概括
一个新的模型预测了巴西半干旱河流的总 (TP),发现非点源主导负载. 减少这些是水质的关键,即使有气候变化的影响.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 水文学的水文学
- 水质管理水质管理
背景情况:
- 热带半干旱地区面临着独特的水资源挑战.
- 卡斯坦水库对巴西的供水至关重要.
- 了解总 (TP) 动态对于管理水质至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 开发和验证一个基于过程的模型来预测TP输入和动态.
- 分析点源 (PS) 和非点源 (NPS) 对TP负载的贡献.
- 评估TP减少策略的有效性和气候变化的影响.
主要方法:
- 为水平衡和TP动态开发了一个每月的基于过程的模型.
- 该模型包含了完整的混合,稳定状态流量和以第一阶衰变的活塞式运输.
- 模型验证使用了初级和二级数据,达到约20%的偏差.
主要成果:
- 非点源 (NPS) 是主要的TP贡献者,占总负载的61%至99%.
- 随着河流的流量增加,TP度增加,沿着河流系统观察到一致的衰减.
- 所有模拟的TP值都超过了0.05 mg/L的强制性极限,气候变化加剧了这一问题.
结论:
- 非点源 (NPS) 减少是控制总 (TP) 的最有效的补救策略.
- 该模型适用于各种水气候条件和土地用途.
- 管理策略必须考虑气候变化对TP负载和水质的影响.
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