在气候变化下建模侵入性杰克·比尔兹利虫 (Hemiptera:Pseudococcidae) 的潜在全球分布
Caifeng Li1, Cuiying Wang1, Xianwen Yang1
1Ministry of Education Key Laboratory of Molecular and Cellular Biology, Hebei Collaborative Innovation Center for Eco-Environment, Hebei Key Laboratory of Animal Physiology, Biochemistry and Molecular Biology, College of Life Sciences, Hebei Normal University, Shijiazhuang, Hebei, China.
Journal of economic entomology
|March 4, 2025
概括
侵入性杰克·比尔兹利虫 (Pseudococcus jackbeardsleyi) 构成了全球性的威胁. 气候变化可能会改变它的分布,一些地区正在收缩,但高度适合的地区正在扩大.
科学领域:
- 农业昆虫学 农业昆虫学
- 侵入性物种 生态学 生态学
- 生物地理学是生物地理学.
背景情况:
- 杰克·比尔兹利虫 (Pseudococcus jackbeardsleyi) 是一种严重的入侵性害虫,在全球影响着超过115种植物属.
- 这种害虫通过对宿主植物的直接和间接损害,造成了相当大的经济损失.
- 它目前分布在59个国家,突出显示了它的入侵性成功.
研究的目的:
- 评估Pseudococcus jackbeardsleyi.yi的潜在全球分布情况.
- 为了建模害虫分布的当前和未来气候场景.
- 确定影响其传播的关键环境变量.
主要方法:
- 使用最大 (MaxEnt) 模型进行生态利基建模.
- 分析了当前和预计的未来气候数据.
- 确定生物气候变量对害虫分布的贡献.
主要成果:
- 预测模型显示出高可信度和准确性.
- 同热度 (Bio 3) 和年降水 (Bio 12) 是影响力最大的环境变量.
- 潜在的分布集中在南美,中非,南亚和澳大利亚东部.
结论:
- 未来的气候场景预测,到本世纪末,P. jackbeardsleyi的总地理分布将会收缩.
- 尽管总体收缩,高度适合害虫的地区预计将增加.
- 这些发现为开发对抗这种入侵性害虫的控制和生物控制策略提供了基础.
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