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气候变化和沙特阿拉伯主要叶甲虫 (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae) 的地理分布预测

Mahmoud S Abdel-Dayem^1,2, Hathal M Al Dhafer¹, Ahmed M Soliman¹

¹King Saud University Museum of Arthropods (KSMA), Department of Plant Protection, College of Food and Agriculture Sciences, King Saud University, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.

Journal of economic entomology

|March 4, 2025

概括

到2050年,气候变化将大大改变沙特阿拉伯四种主要叶甲虫物种的分布. 一些物种将扩大它们的范围,需要农业适应性害虫管理策略.

科学领域:

生态生态学生态生态学
昆虫学昆虫学是一门学科.
气候变化研究气候变化研究

背景情况:

黄虫 (叶虫) 在生态和经济上具有重要意义,在干旱地区充当农业害虫和生物多样性贡献者.
气候变化影响昆虫害虫种群,影响生态平衡和农业生产力.

研究的目的:

在不同的气候变化情景下,预测沙特阿拉伯四种毛虫物种的当前和未来分布.
确定影响叶甲虫分布的关键环境因素,并评估潜在的范围变化.

主要方法:

使用MaxEnt建模与生物气候,地形和植被数据一起,预测到2050年的物种分布.
分析了两个共享社会经济路径 (SSP),SSP126 (低排放) 和SSP585 (高排放).
使用曲线下的面积 (AUC) 和真实技能统计 (TSS) 验证了模型性能.

主要成果:

模型表现出强大的表现 (AUC:0.860.96,TSS:0.520.65).
植物被确定为物种分布最有影响的预测因素.
到2050年,预计范围将发生显著的变化,其中Caryedon acaciae显示了轻微的变化,Chaetocnema pulla,Phyllotreta cheiranthi和Spermophagus sericeus显示了大量的范围扩张,特别是在东部省份.

结论:

预计气候变化将严重改变沙特阿拉伯的叶虫分布.
适应性害虫管理策略对于减轻因扩大害虫范围而产生的潜在生态和农业威胁至关重要.

关键词:

马克斯恩特马克斯恩特地理范围的变化.害虫管理害虫管理害虫管理种类分布建模种类分布建模

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