年轻发病癌症发病率趋势:一个建模视角
Lukas Owens1, Allison Fung1, Jonathan Shuhendler1
1Division of Public Health Sciences, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA.
Journal of the National Cancer Institute
|March 5, 2025
概括
年轻人癌症发病率上升可能源于出生队列效应或早期诊断. 早期诊断,特别是结肠直肠和胃癌,在老年人群中显示出保护性出生队列效应.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 在瘤学瘤学.
- 生物统计学 生物统计学
背景情况:
- 人们越来越担心年轻人癌症诊断的增加.
- 之前的研究集中在病因原因上,忽视了诊断方面的进展.
研究的目的:
- 用自然历史框架建模癌症发病率趋势.
- 在年轻发作的癌症中区分病因因素和诊断变化.
主要方法:
- 使用自然史模型 (健康,临床前,临床状态) 模拟的发病趋势.
- 纳入出生队列效应 (疾病发病) 和周期效应 (诊断).
- 分析了2000-2019年6种年轻发病癌症 (结肠,直肠,乳腺,胃,胰腺,脏) 的数据.
主要成果:
- 观察到的增加发病率与出生队列效应 (1970年后) 或减少临床前疾病持续时间一致.
- 老年人患某些癌症的发病率下降表明有保护性出生队列效应.
结论:
- 疾病建模为癌症发病率驱动因素提供了洞察力.
- 强调需要考虑诊断变化与病因因素一起.
- 建议对涉及年轻发病癌症的潜在暴露模式进行限制.
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