城市表面热岛强度和城市公用事业消费:影响分析和预测
Gashaw T Mekonnen1,2, Arega B Berlie1, Mesfin A Wubie1
1Geography and Environmental Studies, Faculty of Social Sciences, Bahir Dar University, Bahir Dar, Amhara, Ethiopia.
TheScientificWorldJournal
|March 5, 2025
概括
城市气温上升对水和能源使用产生重大影响. 本研究量化了城市表面热岛强度 (SUHII) 对消费的影响,预测未来的增长,并为可持续性提供城市规划信息.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 城市规划 城市规划
- 气候变化研究 气候变化研究
背景情况:
- 城市温度正在上升,影响城市人口.
- 表面城市热岛强度 (SUHII) 影响水,能源和人类健康.
- 以前的埃塞俄比亚研究忽视了温度在公用事业消费中的作用.
研究的目的:
- 调查SUHII对城市地区水电消耗的影响.
- 分析目前的SUHII影响,并预测未来的消费趋势 (2024-2040年).
- 通知城市规划人员关于SUHII对资源需求的影响.
主要方法:
- 用于分析当前SUHII影响的路径模型.
- 未来消费趋势的自回归集成移动平均线 (ARIMA) 模型.
- 使用SSE,MSE,MAPE,RMSE和AICC验证的模型效率.
主要成果:
- SUHII对水消耗的影响 (2,378 m3/1°C/年) 比电力的影响 (1,616 kW/1°C/年) 更大.
- 阿里马模型预测未来的水和电力消耗量将增加.
- 确定了SUHII,水和电力消耗的最佳ARIMA模型.
结论:
- 苏在很大程度上推动了城市的水和能源需求.
- 预计的消费增长需要积极的城市规划.
- 城市规划者必须将SUHII效应纳入增长战略和可持续性倡议.
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