从2015年到2030年,韩国因饮酒而导致的可预防的癌症病例和死亡人数
Soseul Sung1,2, Jihye An3, Jeehi Jung4
1Department of Preventive Medicine, Seoul National University College of Medicine, Seoul, Korea.
Epidemiology and health
|March 6, 2025
概括
饮酒对韩国的癌症发病率和死亡率产生重大影响. 预测显示,到2030年,男性人数将减少,但女性人数将大幅增加,因此需要针对性别的公共卫生战略.
科学领域:
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 在瘤学瘤学.
背景情况:
- 酒精消费是已知的致癌物,与全球众多癌症有关.
- 了解韩国与酒精有关的癌症的具体负担对于公共卫生干预至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 评估2015年和2020年韩国饮酒对癌症发病率和死亡率的影响.
- 预测到2030年与酒精有关的癌症负担的未来趋势.
- 用不同的饮酒标准来比较癌症负担估计.
主要方法:
- 通过使用韩国队列研究数据,对特定癌症的酒精相关相对风险进行了元分析.
- 人口可归因分数 (PAF) 使用莱文公式计算,考虑饮酒流行率和癌症统计数据.
- 对于酒精的致癌作用,假设有15年的潜伏期.
主要成果:
- 2015年,在韩国,饮酒导致3.58%的癌症病例和3.28%的癌症死亡.
- 酒精对癌症发病率的贡献在男性 (4.58%) 比女性 (2.08%) 更高,死亡率也是如此.
- 预计到2030年的趋势表明,男性与酒精相关的癌症PAF减少了17.2%,但女性增加了70.2%.
结论:
- 饮酒对韩国的癌症发病率和死亡率造成了重大负担.
- 在酒精对癌症的影响中,有显著的性别差异.
- 这些发现强调迫切需要针对性别的公共卫生政策和法规,以减轻与酒精有关的癌症风险.
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