反弹曲线是一个糟糕的弹性模型
Daniel A Eisenberg1, Thomas P Seager2, David L Alderson1
1Department of Operations Research, Naval Postgraduate School, 1 University Circle, Monterey, CA 93943, USA.
PNAS nexus
|March 6, 2025
概括
广泛使用的系统弹性反弹曲线模型有缺陷. 它过度简化了复杂的系统,可能导致危险的决策. 需要关注适应能力的新模型.
科学领域:
- 系统工程 系统工程
- 社区的性 社区的性
- 复杂系统分析 复杂系统分析
背景情况:
- 反弹曲线是评估系统弹性,测量功能稳定性和随着时间的推移恢复的普遍模型.
- 尽管在工程和社区系统中广泛使用,反弹曲线长期以来一直被认为是弹性不完全的表示.
- 这个模型,也称为弹性曲线或系统功能曲线,经常被教授和引用.
研究的目的:
- 挑战反弹曲线模型在表示系统弹性方面的有效性.
- 识别反弹曲线处理系统功能,时间,动态和决策的基本缺陷.
- 倡导转向以适应能力为中心的新性模型.
主要方法:
- 对反弹曲线模型的概念框架进行批判性分析.
- 识别模型中关于弹性关键元素的过度简化.
- 关于现有的弹性概念及其局限性的文献综述.
主要成果:
- 反弹曲线模型过度简化了复杂的系统,导致了关于弹性的误解.
- 模型对系统功能,时间,动态和决策的处理中存在的缺陷,妨碍了准确的评估.
- 该模型的局限性可能会对复杂系统的决策产生潜在的危险影响.
结论:
- 反弹曲线模型不足以准确地概念化和测量复杂系统中的弹性.
- 弹性研究和实践应该超越反弹曲线.
- 未来的模型应该优先考虑适应能力,以更好地理解和增强复杂系统.
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