层次的多维成熟建模,以隔离商业关闭对大湖渔业的影响
Zachary S Feiner1,2, Jason C Doll3, Ben D Dickinson4
1Office of Applied Science, Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources Science Operations Center Madison Wisconsin USA.
Evolutionary applications
|March 6, 2025
概括
强烈的捕捞导致黄鱼更早成熟. 当捕鱼停止时,它们适应在几代人内在更长的年龄和更大的尺寸中成熟.
科学领域:
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
- 进化生物学 进化生物学
- 渔业 科学 渔业 科学
背景情况:
- 人为干扰,如渔业收获,对野生种群施加选择性压力.
- 成熟时间的进化变化 (例如,在较小的尺寸和较年轻的年龄成熟) 是对强烈捕捞的常见反应.
- 概率成熟反应规范 (PMRNs) 用于研究成熟演变,但面临着稀疏数据和多重压力因素的挑战.
研究的目的:
- 开发一种新的等级贝叶斯法来估计PMRNs,它解决了以前方法的局限性.
- 调查商业捕捞对劳伦西亚大湖黄鱼 (Perca flavescens) 成熟的影响.
- 评估商业渔业关闭后黄成熟的适应反应.
主要方法:
- 利用了来自劳伦斯大湖地区的三十年黄鱼数据的时间序列.
- 开发并应用了一种层次化的贝叶斯PMRN估计方法.
- 在PMRN估计中考虑了表型可塑性和环境压力因素.
主要成果:
- 商业捕捞被确定为黄成熟度变化的主要驱动因素.
- 20世纪90年代末商业渔业的关闭导致成熟趋势的逆转.
- 黄鱼在收获放松后2-3代内成熟时表现出对年龄较大和体型较大的适应.
结论:
- 层次贝叶斯PMRN方法为研究对环境变化的进化反应提供了一个强大的框架.
- 渔业管理,包括收获监管,可以影响鱼群的进化轨迹.
- 未来与基因组数据的整合可以阐明成熟的遗传基础,并为渔业政策提供信息.
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