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孟加拉国气候变化情景:基于CMIP6模型的历史数据分析和未来预测
Md Akik Tanjil Jihan1, Shamsunnahar Popy2, Shafiul Kayes2
1Department of Environmental Science and Disaster Management, Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman Science and Technology University, Gopalganj, 8100, Bangladesh. akiktanjil8@gmail.com.
Scientific reports
|March 6, 2025
概括
孟加拉国面临着严重的气候异常,自1901年以来,观察到2°C的变暖和降水减少. 未来的预测表明,到2100年,气温和降水量将大幅增加,需要采取适应策略.
科学领域:
- 气候学和环境科学 气候学和环境科学
- 气候变化研究 气候变化研究
- 农业科学 农业科学
背景情况:
- 孟加拉国在过去二十年中经历了显著的气候异常,极端天气事件的频率和强度增加.
- 全球气候变化预计将改变温度和降水模式,对孟加拉国的农业,生计和生态系统构成重大风险.
- 了解这些复杂的动态需要分析历史气候数据并预测未来的趋势.
研究的目的:
- 分析1901-2020年的历史气候数据,以了解孟加拉国过去的温度和降水趋势.
- 预测未来的温度和降雨模式在孟加拉国使用相结合模型对比项目第六阶段 (CMIP6) 数据.
- 确定预测气候变化的区域差异及其对脆弱社区的潜在影响.
主要方法:
- 利用了从WorldClim v2.1.2.1获得的观察到的气候数据 (CRU TS 4.05) 和未来气候预测 (CMIP6).
- 采用了统计技术,包括相关性,回归,标准偏差和反向距离权重 (IDW) 插值.
- 分析历史和预测数据以评估温度和降水的趋势,变化和空间模式.
主要成果:
- 从1901年到2020年,观察到显著的变暖趋势,平均气温上升2°C,年降水减少607.26毫米.
- 预计到2100年气温上升的范围从1°C到4.4°C (最低) 和1°C到4.1°C (最高).
- 预计到2100年降水量将增加480.38毫米,季风月份的降水量增长最为显著,并确定了区域差异,东南地区 (SE) 经历了显著的变暖,东北地区 (NE) 降水量显著增加.
结论:
- 预计孟加拉国将面临严重的气候变化影响,包括气温上升和降雨模式变化.
- 该研究强调了对脆弱社区的重大影响,特别是在西南部沿海地区.
- 迫切需要有针对性的适应战略,地方知识的整合,以及积极主动的国家和全球政策来应对与气候有关的挑战.
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