在气候变化下使用多变量选择方法预测葡萄的空间分布
Ga-Young Kim1, Wang-Hee Lee2,3
1Department of Smart Agriculture Systems, Chungnam National University, Daejeon, 34134, Korea.
Scientific reports
|March 6, 2025
概括
葡萄 (Otiorhynchus sulcatus) 可能会入侵北美和欧洲,亚洲和印度的风险很高. 气候变化可能会使其息地向北移动,影响作物保护战略.
科学领域:
- *生态学和生物地理学
- * 农业昆虫学 农业昆虫学
- * 气候变化影响评估
背景情况:
- *葡萄 (Otiorhynchus sulcatus) 是一个重要的多虫害虫,影响全球许多经济重要作物.
- *以前的研究还没有全面评估这种入侵性害虫的潜在全球分布.
- *了解害虫分布对于制定有效的农业管理和生物安全措施至关重要.
研究的目的:
- * 根据当前和未来的气候变化情景,预测葡萄的潜在全球分布.
- *评估不同变量选择方法对物种分布模型 (SDM) 准确性的影响.
- * 确定葡萄入侵风险最高的地区.
主要方法:
- *使用MaxEnt算法开发多种物种分布模型 (SDM).
- * 应用各种变量选择技术:相关性,生物考虑和主要成分分析.
- *将单个SDM集成到一个合并模型中,以实现可靠的预测和合并建模.
主要成果:
- *使用原始生物气候变量集成SDM表现强 (TSS 0.340.37,F1得分0.600.67).
- *重建的变量产生较低的模型性能 (TSS 0.13,F1得分为0.48) 和不同的分布模式.
- *预计主要分布在北美和欧洲,在远东亚和印度北部发现的入侵风险最高.
结论:
- * 葡萄虫的潜在分布受到预测变量和建模方法的选择的影响.
- * 预计气候变化将促进葡萄的息地向北移动,特别是在现有的范围内.
- * 人类活动可能会导致葡萄蔓延到新的地理区域,需要加强监测和控制工作.
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