基于营养预测者的消化道癌风险评分的开发:戈尔斯坦队列研究中的风险预测模型
Masoumeh Jabbari1, Meisam Barati2, Ali Kalhori3
1Department of Community Nutrition, Faculty of Nutrition Sciences and Food Technology, National Nutrition and Food Technology Research Institute, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran.
Nutrition and cancer
|March 8, 2025
概括
研究人员开发了一个简单的营养风险评分来预测伊朗的消化癌症风险. 这种非实验室工具有助于改变生活方式以预防癌症.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 营养科学 营养科学
背景情况:
- 消化系统癌症在全球和伊朗的健康负担很大.
- 癌症风险的预测模型通常需要实验室评估,限制了可访问性.
- 对于早期风险识别和预防策略,需要一个简单的非实验室工具.
研究的目的:
- 开发和验证一种简单的非实验室评分系统,用于预测发生消化道癌症的风险.
- 在伊朗人口的临床框架内利用饮食预测因素.
- 创建一个实用的工具来激励生活方式的修改,以减少癌症的风险.
主要方法:
- 利用了来自伊朗的Golestan队列研究 (49,173名参与者,年龄在37-80岁之间) 的数据.
- 基于15年消化道癌症风险的饮食因素开发了一个预测模型.
- 评估模型性能使用对应统计 (C-统计) 对歧视和校准图片进行评估.
主要成果:
- 最终的分析包括43550名参与者 (25249名女性,18301名男性).
- 预测模型证明了可接受的歧视 (C统计:0.76在导出,0.70在验证).
- 模型校准率很高 (0.88在导出,0.91在验证).
结论:
- 成功建立了一个简单而实用的营养风险评分.
- 这种评分系统适用于激励有风险的个体采用更健康的生活方式和饮食模式.
- 该工具可以有助于预防消化系统癌症和相关健康问题.
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