与代谢功能障碍相关的性肝病的全球负担和未来趋势:1990-2021年至2045年
Chengxia Kan1, Kexin Zhang1, Yuqun Wang1
1Department of Endocrinology and Metabolism, Clinical Research Center, Shandong Provincial Key Medical and Health Discipline of Endocrinology, Affiliated Hospital of Shandong Second Medical University, Weifang, PR China.
Annals of hepatology
|March 8, 2025
概括
与代谢功能障碍相关的脂肪性肝病 (MASLD) 影响全球超过127亿人,患病率和发病率不断增加. 需要紧急干预,因为预计到2045年,病例将大幅增加.
科学领域:
- 肝病学 肝病学是一种肝病学.
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 与代谢功能障碍相关的脂肪性肝病 (MASLD),以前被称为非酒精性脂肪性肝病,代表着一个重大的和不断升级的全球健康问题.
- 这种疾病的患病率和影响在全球范围内不断增加,需要进行全面的流行病学分析.
研究的目的:
- 分析从1990年到2021年的全球MASLD负担.
- 预测MASLD的未来负担,直到2045年.
主要方法:
- 利用2021年全球疾病负担研究 (GBD) 对204个国家的数据.
- 使用线性回归和连点回归来评估趋势,并使用贝叶斯模型来预测未来.
- 分析了患病率,发病率,死亡率和经残疾调整的寿命年 (DALY).
主要成果:
- 在2021年,1.270亿人患有MASLD,男性患病率更高.
- 根据年龄标准化的流行率和发病率从1990年增加到2021年.
- 存在显著的区域差异,东亚,南亚和北非/中东地区的增长率最高;西欧的增长速度最快.
- 2021年,MASLD造成了138,328人死亡,女性的死亡率更高.
- 预测显示,到2045年,发病率将大幅上升,估计新发病人数将达到6.6758亿.
结论:
- MASLD给全球健康带来了相当大的负担,其特点是性别和地区差异很大.
- 到2045年,预计MASLD病例的增加凸显了对立即公共卫生战略和有针对性的干预措施的迫切需要,以打击这种不断增长的流行病.
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