重定位煤电,加速中国电力系统的净零转型
Kangxin An1, Xinzhu Zheng2, Jianxiang Shen3
1State Key Laboratory of Regional Environment and Sustainability, School of Environment, Tsinghua University, 100084, Beijing, China.
Nature communications
|March 8, 2025
概括
煤电作为灵活性提供者的重新定位加速了中国的发展.
科学领域:
- 能源系统分析 能源系统分析
- 气候变化缓解缓解 气候变化缓解
- 权力经济学 权力经济学
背景情况:
- 为了实现公正和公平的能源转型,全球必须采取行动.
- 围绕脱碳的最佳途径存在不确定性.
- 中国作为一个煤炭丰富,天然气贫困的经济体的独特地位.
研究的目的:
- 调查煤电重新定位在加速中国净零转型中的作用.
- 量化从基本负载转向灵活的煤电转移的影响.
- 评估这一战略带来的经济和环境效益.
主要方法:
- 为中国开发一个省级,每小时发送的电力系统模型.
- 纳入早期退休和碳捕获改造的时间间决策.
- 模拟煤炭发电厂的不同运行策略.
主要成果:
- 通过减少煤炭发电平均寿命损失 (7.9-9.6年) 来缓解滞留资产.
- 改造后的煤电的长期竞争力提高.
- 到2030年整合194-245吉瓦的额外可变可再生能源.
- 电力系统过渡成本减少约1760亿美元.
结论:
- 将煤电重新定位为灵活性提供者是加速煤炭丰富,天然气贫困经济体脱碳的可行策略.
- 政策激励对于灵活的调度,有序的退休以及煤炭发电的碳捕获改造至关重要.
- 这种方法增强了可再生能源的整合,并降低了整体过渡成本.
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