在阿曼使用地理加权波桑回归GWPR进行COVID19死亡率的地理空间建模
Shawky Mansour1, Mohammed Alahmadi2, Ayman Mahmoud3
1Geography Department, College of Social Sciences, Kuwait University, P.O. Box 5969, 13060, Kuwait City, Safat, Kuwait. shawky.mansour@ku.edu.kw.
Scientific reports
|March 8, 2025
概括
在阿曼,COVID-19死亡率在地理位置上有所不同. 老年人口和呼吸道疾病是关键因素,突出了需要本地公共卫生战略来减少死亡人数.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 空间分析 空间分析
背景情况:
- 在全球范围内,COVID-19疫情造成了毁灭性的死亡率.
- 了解COVID-19死亡率的空间变化对于政策至关重要.
- 关于发展中国家COVID-19死亡率决定因素的研究有限.
研究的目的:
- 为了调查阿曼COVID-19死亡率的空间异质性.
- 确定COVID-19死亡率的关键决定因素及其地理变异.
- 为了解决发展中国家关于国家以下死亡率模式的研究缺口.
主要方法:
- 采用了地理加权普森回归 (GWPR) 模型.
- 在次国家范围内分析了COVID-19死亡率的空间变化.
- 将GWPR性能与全球普通最小方形 (OLS) 模型进行比较.
主要成果:
- 该GWPR模型表现出高于OLS模型的性能.
- 在风险因素和死亡率之间的关系中观察到显著的地理差异.
- 老年人群,呼吸系统疾病和人口密度被确定为死亡率的重要预测因素.
结论:
- 老年人口是最有影响力的因素,其次是呼吸系统疾病.
- 这些发现强调了局部风险因子分析对疫情应对的重要性.
- 政策建议旨在通过有针对性的干预措施减轻高死亡率风险.
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