使用机器学习算法预测PM2.5度:对虚拟监测站的一种方法
Ahmad Makhdoomi1, Maryam Sarkhosh2, Somayyeh Ziaei1
1Department of Environmental Health Engineering, School of Health, Mashhad University of Medical Sciences, Mashhad, Iran.
Scientific reports
|March 8, 2025
概括
这项研究使用机器学习 (ML) 模型来预测颗粒物 (PM2.5) 度. 梯度增强回归器 (GBR) 显示出最佳性能,提供精确的空气质量监测和暴露评估.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 数据科学数据科学数据科学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 颗粒物 (PM2.5) 是一个重要的空气污染物,需要仔细监测.
- 由于COVID-19封锁和工业活动等因素,PM2.5水平出现波动.
- 准确预测PM2.5对于空气质量管理和健康评估至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 使用四种机器学习 (ML) 模型预测PM2.5度.
- 评估光梯度增强机 (LGBM),极端梯度增强回归器 (XGBR),随机森林 (RF) 和梯度增强回归器 (GBR) 的性能.
- 确定PM2.5预测中最有效的ML模型.
主要方法:
- 使用了四种ML模型:LGBM,XGBR,RF和GBR.
- 在2016年至2022年的历史PM2.5度数据上训练和评估模型.
- 使用诸如平均平方误差 (MSE) 和根平均平方误差 (RMSE) 等指标评估模型性能.
主要成果:
- 所有ML模型都表现出高预测准确度,大约95%的预测在观察到的度因子内.
- 梯度增强回归器 (GBR) 与其他模型相比,表现出优越的性能.
- GBR获得了最低的MSE (5.33) 和RMSE (2.31),这表明在捕获PM2.5变化方面具有稳定性.
结论:
- 机器学习模型,特别是GBR,是高精度PM2.5预测的有效工具.
- 开发的方法支持全球空气质量监测倡议.
- 准确的PM2.5预测可以增强流行病学研究和急性暴露评估.
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