一种多模型方法来估计北欧地区的过度死亡率,2020-2023年
Sasikiran Kandula1, Anja Bråthen Kristoffersen1, Gunnar Rø1
1Norwegian Institute of Public Health, Oslo, Norway.
Public health
|March 9, 2025
概括
芬兰在COVID-19大流行期间经历了最高的过度死亡率,老年人和男性受到影响最大. 在这些北欧国家,到2023年死亡率将恢复到大流行前的水平.
科学领域:
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 生物统计学 生物统计学
背景情况:
- 过度死亡率是COVID-19流行病对人口健康影响的关键指标.
- 北欧国家 (丹麦,芬兰,挪威,瑞典) 具有相似的特征,但各种各样的流行病反应和负担.
研究的目的:
- 估计和比较2020年至2023年的丹麦,芬兰,挪威和瑞典的过度死亡率.
- 分析全国和按年龄,性别和地区的死亡率趋势.
主要方法:
- 采用了结合贝叶斯空间,贝叶斯GAMM和自回归/指数光滑方法的多模型方法.
- 采用模型的平均值来合成来自单个模型的估计.
- 在死亡率估计中纳入趋势,季节性和空间依赖.
主要成果:
- 芬兰的累积过度死亡率最高. 较年长的年龄组 (70岁以上) 和男性的过度死亡率不成比例地高.
- 总体而言,首都地区的过度死亡率低于每个国家的其他地区.
- 到2023年,死亡率在很大程度上恢复到研究国家的流行前水平.
结论:
- 与单个模型相比,组合建模方法提供了更好的不确定性量化方法.
- 产生了全面的,空间,时间和人口统计学解决的过度死亡率估计.
- 这些发现可以促进未来的流行病学关联研究.
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