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评估缓解和地球工程干预场景对地球系统动态和气候变异性的影响,使用多式模式模拟

Bradley A Gay¹, Lukas Mandrake², Kimberley R Miner²

¹Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, USA. bradley.a.gay@jpl.nasa.gov.

Scientific reports

|March 10, 2025

概括

由于气候极端,地球工程干预是不可避免的,但准确预测它们的后果是具有挑战性的. 目前的模型难以复制观察到的温度和降水模式,强调需要改进地质工程风险评估.

科学领域:

气候科学气候科学
地球系统科学地球系统科学
环境建模环境建模

背景情况:

极端气候需要地质工程干预,但由于不完整的数据和理解,准确的后果预测受到阻碍.
全球气候显著变暖,近几十年来观察到显著的区域温度异常和降水变化.

研究的目的:

评估气候缓解和地球工程干预措施的全球反应和影响.
评估气候模型在模拟历史温度,降水和甲度方面的准确性.

主要方法:

使用了CRU TS4.08观测,ERA5再分析数据和基于CMIP6场景的UKESM0-1-LL模拟.
从1950年到2022年分析了全球加权平均表面温度 (Tsurf) 和总降水量 (P).
将模拟输出与观测数据进行比较,重点关注区域差异和大气中甲度 ([CH4]).

主要成果:

全球Tsurf增加了1.37°C,P增加了0.05毫米,日−1,区域差异很大.
模拟倾向于高估 Tsurf 和 P 的变化和大小,显示区域差异.
模型很难复制历史降水远程连接和空间变暖模式,尽管捕获了Tsurf,P和[CH4]的偏离.

结论:

现有的气候模型在准确预测地质工程干预措施的影响方面存在局限性.
在应对气候变化的重大区域差异强调了地质工程风险评估的复杂性.
需要新的方法来完善地质工程评估,考虑到观察到的区域异质性和模型不确定性.

关键词:

在CMIP6中,CMIP6是CMIP6.碳循环是一个碳循环.气候变化气候变化气候变化地球观测地球观测地球观测地球系统模型.地质工程是指地质工程.

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