二十年来伊朗卫生系统改革期间的住院和成本趋势:时间序列分析
Yousef Khadivi1, Mojtaba Baktashian2,3, Reza Khadivi4
1Metabolic Liver Disease Research Center, Isfahan University of Medical Sciences, Isfahan, Iran.
International journal for equity in health
|March 10, 2025
概括
伊朗的卫生部门改革 (HSR) 实现了农村和城市人口之间的住院率的健康公平. 然而,预计到2027年,农村和非农村保险基金的住院费用将大幅增加.
科学领域:
- 卫生经济学 卫生经济学
- 公共卫生政策 公共卫生政策
- 医疗服务研究 医疗服务研究
背景情况:
- 伊朗在2005年和2014年实施了两阶段的卫生部门改革 (HSR).
- 该改革由伊朗健康保险组织 (IHIO) 资助.
- 本研究使用20年的住院和支出数据评估HSR结果.
研究的目的:
- 评估伊朗卫生部门改革 (HSR) 的成果.
- 分析IHIO保险人群 (2001-2021) 的住院率和支出趋势.
- 预测到2027年医院住院和成本的未来趋势.
主要方法:
- 农村和非农村IHIO覆盖人口的长度观察研究 (2001-2021年).
- 分析住院率,人均住院费用和支出通货膨胀.
- 时间序列分析使用ARIMA和指数级平滑模型进行预测.
主要成果:
- 预计到2027年,每1000人住院率将达到101人.
- 人均住院费用保持稳定,农村和非农村基金之间没有显著差异.
- 预计到2027年,人均住院费用的年增长率将上升到54.90% (非农村) 和48.67% (农村).
结论:
- HSR成功地促进了农村和城市人口之间的住院率的健康公平.
- 在农村和非农村保险基金之间观察到人均住院费用均等.
- 住院费用不断上升,需要持续监测和政策调整.
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