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一种基于网络演变的定量分析方法,用于化学企业安全生产的风险因素
Ran Tao1,2, Donghong Li1,2, Hongxun Shi1,2
1State Key Laboratory of Chemical Safety, Qingdao, 266000, Shandong, China.
Scientific reports
|March 10, 2025
概括
本研究引入了一种新的方法,通过分析人类,环境和设备因素来评估石化安全风险. 它有助于识别预防工业事故的关键风险.
科学领域:
- 化学工程是化学工程的重要组成部分.
- 工业安全 工业安全 工业安全
- 风险管理 风险管理
背景情况:
- 石化行业的扩张导致自动化增加和复杂的安全挑战.
- 现有的风险评估往往忽略了人类和环境因素,需要采取更全面的方法.
- 石油化工行业的事故导致重大经济损失,伤亡和公共利益影响.
研究的目的:
- 开发一种包含多个因素的石化安全风险定量分析方法.
- 通过包括人类,环境,材料,机器和管理因素来解决现有研究的局限性.
- 加强石化行业内的风险管理和评估能力.
主要方法:
- 使用复杂网络理论构建化学企业安全风险网络 (CESRN).
- 开发一种计算节点风险值和动态风险值的方法,考虑多种因素.
- 建立化学企业生产安全事故演变模型.
- 对风险因素重要性的定量评估和控制措施的制定.
- 使用实际事故案例验证拟议的方法.
主要成果:
- 拟议的方法准确地模拟了化学企业事故的演变.
- 该方法精确计算了个别风险因素的重要性.
- 确定关键的风险因素使得有针对性的安全干预措施成为可能.
- 通过案例研究的验证证实了该方法的有效性.
结论:
- 开发的定量分析方法为评估石化安全风险提供了坚实的框架.
- 综合多个因素,可以更全面地了解事故的原因.
- 这些发现支持实施改进的风险管理策略,以防止未来的事件.
- 这种方法对于提高石化行业的整体安全性和可持续性至关重要.
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