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基于SEER数据库的白血病自杀风险预测模型的构建和评估
Shan Zheng1,2,3, Yuxin Tong1,2,3, Jiayi Chen1,2,3
1Department of Hematology, Zhejiang Cancer Hospital, Hangzhou, Zhejiang, China.
Frontiers in psychiatry
|March 10, 2025
概括
现在可以使用新的模型预测白血病患者的自杀风险. 该工具有助于识别高风险个体,及时进行干预,可能减少可预防的死亡.
科学领域:
- 在瘤学瘤学.
- 精神病学是一个精神病学.
- 生物统计学 生物统计学
背景情况:
- 白血病患者的自杀率较高.
- 准确的自杀风险评估对于干预至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 开发和验证白血病患者自杀风险的预测模型.
- 促进在临床环境中早期识别高风险个体.
主要方法:
- 利用了来自SEER数据库 (2000-2020) 的大量队列 (194,584名患者).
- 雇员考克斯比例危险模型和名ogram构造.
- 使用一致性指数 (C指数) 和接收器操作特征 (ROC) 曲线验证模型性能.
主要成果:
- 关键预测因素包括年龄,性别,种族,居住地,婚姻状况和组织学类型.
- 实现了高歧视,C指数为0.798 (培训) 和0.776 (验证).
- 校准图片证实了预测结果与实际结果之间的强烈一致;卡普兰-梅尔曲线显示了显著的风险分层.
结论:
- 开发了一种针对白血病患者自杀风险的直观和强大的预测模型.
- 这种工具可以通过有针对性的干预措施帮助减少可预防的死亡.
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