在替代终点上销售的养场牛的经济风险和净收益分配的随机建模
Lucas M Horton1, Ted C Schroeder2, Marshall N Streeter3
1Center for Outcomes Research and Epidemiology, Department of Diagnostic Medicine and Pathobiology, College of Veterinary Medicine, Kansas State University, Manhattan, KS 66506, USA.
养料牛的时间较长会增加经济风险,后期终点 (EP) 的净回报分布更广泛. 市场价格波动和尸体折扣显著影响利能力,超过了动物表现因素.
科学领域:
- 动物科学动物科学
- 农业经济学 农业经济学
- 量化建模 量化建模
背景情况:
- 美国的养场越来越多地将牛给更重的终点.
- 延长养日 (DOF) 引入了经济的不确定性.
- 了解风险对于优化营销策略至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 评估在养场牛中扩大DOF的经济风险.
- 描述后期终点 (EP) 的净回报分布.
- 将风险概况与当前行业标准进行比较.
主要方法:
- 牛的表现,健康和市场变化的随机模拟建模.
- 使用商业料区试验数据和行业报告进行参数化.
- 条件随机森林模型用于识别对净回报有影响的因素.
主要成果:
- 净收益分配与以后的EP扩大,表明经济风险增加.
- 服装 (尸体) 营销基础显示,由于折扣 (收益率等级,重量级),负回报更高.
- 联邦牛的价格差异是EP最有影响力的变量,其次是基准价格,玉米价格和质量等级网格.
结论:
- 将牛给以后的EP放大了经济风险,主要是由于市场价格波动.
- 营销基础 (活着与穿着) 和电网折扣显著影响利能力.
- 优先考虑市场条件对于管理扩展养策略中的经济结果至关重要.
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