在卫星时代,总太阳辐射的负趋势超过了卫星时代
Ted Amdur1,2, Peter Huybers1
1Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA 02138.
概括
总太阳辐射 (TSI) 趋势的差异通过计算卫星仪器漂移和代理灵敏度来解决. 新的分析显示,从1980年到2023年,每十年的TSI下降率为-0.15W/m2.
科学领域:
- 太阳物理 太阳物理
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 放射测量是一种放射测量.
背景情况:
- 在卫星时代的太阳辐射总量 (TSI) 重建中存在差异,每十年的趋势差异高达0.17W/m2.
- 太阳能周期24的高质量卫星观测偏离了 TSI 代理估计,原因之前尚不清楚.
研究的目的:
- 为了调和直接卫星 TSI 测量和基于代理的重建之间的分歧.
- 识别和纠正影响 TSI 趋势的仪器漂移和代理和效应.
主要方法:
- 采用贝叶斯卡尔曼过方法来整合卫星辐射仪数据和 TSI 代理.
- 从1978年到2023年,分析了 TSI 中的线性趋势,重点关注太阳能周期24.
主要成果:
- 在最近的卫星 TSI 观测中确定了未计入的正线性漂移.
- 发现用于重建的太阳磁代理在低的 TSI 值时失去灵敏度.
- 经过校正后,直接和代理的 TSI 数据一致,表明在1980年至2023年期间,每十年线性趋势为-0.15 W/m2 (95% CI: -0.17至-0.13 W/m2每十年).
结论:
- 卫星仪器漂移和代理和效应解释了历史的 TSI 重建差异.
- 对于最近的卫星时代,确立了总太阳辐射下降的一致和可靠的线性趋势.
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