投资美国森林以缓解气候变化
Alice Favero1, Justin Baker2, Brent Sohngen3
1RTI International, Durham, USA. afavero@rti.org.
Carbon balance and management
|March 11, 2025
概括
目前美国联邦为森林气候减缓提供资金,可能会显著增加碳封存. 预计优化投资将有助于实现2030年和2050年的气候目标,特别是在考虑二氧化碳施肥效应时.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 气候变化缓解缓解 气候变化缓解
- 林业 林业 林业 林业 林业
背景情况:
- 美国联邦政策越来越多地支持以森林为基础的气候缓解.
- 森林在碳捕获和减缓气候变化方面发挥着至关重要的作用.
- 评估当前联邦资金对实现气候目标的影响至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 评估美国森林在当前联邦气候缓解资金下净碳封存潜力.
- 确定这些资金是否足以实现2030年和2050年的国内气候目标.
- 预测未来的减缓情景,考虑不同的二氧化碳施肥假设.
主要方法:
- 分析目前分配给以森林为基础的气候缓解活动的联邦资金.
- 优化投资途径的建模,优先考虑最便宜的减排选项.
- 在两个二氧化碳施肥场景下模拟森林净碳捕获.
主要成果:
- 目前联邦政府的投资 (约. 每年6.4亿美元) 预计在2030年将净碳流量增加12% (745万CO2/年),在2050年将增加17% (786万CO2/年).
- 考虑到二氧化碳施肥,预计到2030年,森林净碳捕获量将增加17%.
- 在二氧化碳施肥下,到2050年,联邦资金可以实现约1GtCO2的净封存.
结论:
- 目前美国联邦对森林气候减缓的资金显示,有可能对国家气候目标作出重大贡献.
- 优化投资策略和考虑二氧化碳施肥效应是最大化森林碳捕获的关键.
- 由联邦资金支持的基于森林的气候缓解行动对于实现短期和长期气候目标至关重要.
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